Causal inference and experimental design

Author

Macartan Humphreys

%%{init: {"flowchart": {"htmlLabels": false}} }%%
flowchart LR
    Z("all slides")
    click Z "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025.html"

Foundations

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flowchart LR
    A("Getting<br>started") --- B("Intro to<br>DeclareDesign") --- C("Causality") --- D("Inquiries and<br>identification")
    click A "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/1.1_intro.html"
    click B "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/1.2_declaredesign.html"
    click C "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/2.1_causality.html"
    click D "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/2.2_estimands.html"

Estimation and design strategies

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flowchart LR
    E("Design-based<br>estimation") --- F("Bayesian<br>inference") --- G("Experimental<br>design") --- H("Design<br>evaluation")
    click E "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/3_fisher.html"
    click F "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/4_bayes.html"
    click G "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/5.1_design.html"
    click H "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/5.2_evaluation.html"

Topics

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flowchart LR
    I("Topics 1:<br>Controls") --- J("Topics 2:<br>Observational") --- K("Topics 3:<br>AMCE, ACME, NDE etc") --- L("Topics 4:<br>Getting to work")
    click I "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/6_topics_1.html"
    click J "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/7_topics_2.html"
    click K "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/8_topics_3.html"
    click L "https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/9_topics_4.html"

Puzzles: https://macartan.github.io/ci/exercises.html
This syllabus: https://macartan.github.io/ci/ci_2025/syllabus_ci_2025.pdf
Student survey

2025 Times and places

Date	Time	Location	Topic
10 Jan 2025	10 - 12	WZB B002/003	Intro
17 Jan 2025	9 - 1	WZB B002/003	Causality and causal inquiries
24 Jan 2025	9 - 1	WZB B002/003	Frequentist answer strategies
31 Jan 2025	9 - 1	WZB B002/003	Bayesian answer strategies
14 Feb 2025	9 - 1	WZB B002/003	Design and evaluation
21 Feb 2025	9 - 1	WZB B002/003	Topics 1
28 Feb 2025	9 - 1	WZB B002/003	Topics 2

AGNES page

Slides

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flowchart LR
    A("Intro") --- B("Experimenting") --- C("Causality")
    click A "https://macartan.github.io/ci/experiments_2026/intro.html"
    click B "https://macartan.github.io/ci/experiments_2026/experimenting.html"
    click C "https://macartan.github.io/ci/experiments_2026/causality.html"

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    D("Answer<br>strategies") --- E("Design") --- F("Topics")
    click D "https://macartan.github.io/ci/experiments_2026/analysis.html"
    click E "https://macartan.github.io/ci/experiments_2026/design.html"
    click F "https://macartan.github.io/ci/experiments_2026/topics.html"

Activities

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    I("in class<br>experiment") --- G("RI<br>intuition") --- H("interactions<br>intuition")
    click I "https://macartan.github.io/ci/in_class_experiment.html"
    click G "https://macartan.github.io/ci/experiments_2026/ri_exercise.pdf"
    click H "https://macartan.github.io/ci/experiments_2026/interaction_exercise.pdf"

Resources

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flowchart LR
    S("Syllabus") === V("Student<br>survey")  --- J("DeclareDesign<br>shiny app")
    click S "https://macartan.github.io/ci/experiments_2026/syllabus.pdf"
    click V "https://cloud.wzb.eu/apps/forms/s/6Sdi6JEYTS59c6rMJCEcYErJ"
    click J "https://shiny2.wzb.eu/ipi/declaredesign/"
    style S fill:#f472b6,stroke:#be123d,stroke-width:2px,color:#ffffff
    style V fill:#fb7185,stroke:#be123c,stroke-width:2px,color:#ffffff

Times and locations 2026

Meetings will be held at the WZB

Date	Time	Location	Topic
9 Jan 2026	9 - 13	WZB A 305	1 Getting started
16 Jan 2026	9 - 13	WZB A 305	2 Doing experiments
30 Jan 2026	9 - 13	WZB A 305	3 Causality and causal inquiries
6 Feb 2026	9 - 13	WZB A 305	4 Answer strategies
20 Feb 2026	9 - 13	WZB A 305	5 Data strategies and design evaluation
27 Feb 2026	9 - 13	WZB B 001	6 Topics: downstream experimentation, spillover experiments, patient preference trials, survey experiments

The sessions will be structured roughly as follows.

9:00 - 11:00: lecture or discussions of readings
11:00 - 11:15: break
11:15 - 13:00: discussions, team presentations and in-class exercises

AGNES page

Office hours

Instructor: Fridays, 13:00 - 15:00, in person

Teaching assistant: Wednesdays, 13:00 - 14:00 on Zoom (excluding 25 Feb)